mathsurgery - Probability year 9

All
• Move between the general and the particular to test the logic of an argument
• Interpret the results of an experiment using the language of probability; appreciate that random processes are unpredictable• Know that if the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1-p; use diagrams and tables to record in a systematic way all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and for two successive events
• Compare estimated experimental probabilities with theoretical probabilities, recognising that:
(i) if an experiment is repeated the outcome may, and usually will, be different
(ii) increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability

Most
• Pose questions and make convincing arguments to justify generalisations or solutions• Interpret results involving uncertainty and prediction
• Identify all the mutually exclusive outcomes of an experiment; know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems
• Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in a range of contexts; appreciate the difference between mathematical explanation and experimental evidence

Some
• Examine and refine arguments, conclusions and generalisations
• Understand relative frequency as an estimate of probability and use this to compare outcomes of experiments
• Use tree diagrams to represent outcomes of two or more events and to calculate probabilities of combinations of independent events
• Know when to add or multiply two probabilities: if A and B are mutually exclusive, then the probability of A or B occurring is P(A) + P(B), whereas if A and B are independent events, the probability of A and B occurring is P(A) × P(B)

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Probability year 9